SWEDEN
In the last polls before election, governing Liberalerna rised towards 4-5 % after being below the 4 %-threshold for a long time in opinion polls. If they enter parliament, the gap between the opposition Red-Green Bloc and the governing Tidö Bloc can tighten and therefore decide which government will be the next.
The following shows a line chart of the opinion polls conducted after the
2022 General Election until the 2026 General Election.
The 2022 election gave a narrow majority to the right-wing bloc of the Moderates (M), Christian Democrats (KD), Liberals (L) and Sweden Democrats (SD). Their Tidö Agreement created a minority government of M, KD and L under Ulf Kristersson, which relied on the Sweden Democrats in parliament without having them in the cabinet. During the term Sweden joined NATO in March 2024, and 2026 was the first election since then.
Facing the Tidö parties was the opposition around the Social Democrats of Magdalena Andersson, together with the Left, the Centre Party and the Greens. The campaign circled around crime, immigration and integration, the economy, healthcare, schools and energy. The Sweden Democrats demanded a place in the cabinet, and the Liberals, polling close to the 4 % threshold, were a worry for their own bloc. The vote took place on 13 September, together with municipal and regional elections.
The Riksdag has 349 seats: 310 are distributed among 29 constituencies of different size, and 39 levelling seats are allocated nationally so that the result stays proportional to the party vote. Seats are calculated with the modified Sainte-Laguë method.
A party needs 4 % nationally, or 12 % in a single constituency, to win seats. Voters choose a party ballot and may also mark a preferred candidate on the open list, which can move that person up. The Riksdag votes on a prime minister, who can govern as long as an absolute majority of 175 members does not vote against.
The Social Democrats stayed the largest party with 28.0 % and 99 seats, although this was their lowest share since 1911. The Moderates won 19.9 % (70 seats), the Sweden Democrats 17.5 % (62), their first decline in a general election since 1988, the Left 8.4 % (30), the Centre Party 7.0 % (25), the Christian Democrats 6.2 % (22), the Greens 6.1 % (22) and the Liberals 5.3 % (19). Turnout reached 84.9 %.
The race between the blocs was extremely close. The opposition of S, V, C and MP won 176 seats with 49.6 % of the votes, the four Tidö parties 173 seats with 48.8 %. Kristersson announced that he would step down as prime minister, and Andersson began negotiating with the other opposition parties on a new government. The majority is only one seat above the 175 needed to block a prime minister, so the parties will have to rely on each other closely.